TL;DR: China’s industrial profits jumped 21.6% year-on-year in September 2025, the biggest rise in nearly two years, driven by high-tech manufacturing, government support, and easing deflation pressures.
Key Points
- China’s industrial profits grew 21.6% in September 2025 from a year earlier, marking the strongest increase since November 2023, according to official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
- The surge followed a 20.4% rise in August and brought cumulative profits for January-September 2025 up 3.2% year-on-year, the first positive year-to-date result this year.
- Growth was led by high-tech manufacturing (+26.8%), especially integrated circuits (+42.3%), lithium-ion batteries (+38.9%), and electric vehicles (+31.2%).
- By ownership, private firms’ profits rose 25.1%, foreign-invested companies gained 18.7%, and state-owned enterprises grew 12.8%.
- The NBS said, “The rapid profit growth in September reflects the effectiveness of macro policies in stabilizing industrial operations and boosting market confidence.”
- Contributing factors included government subsidies for equipment upgrades, restrictions on price wars, lower financing costs, and a weak yuan that supported export competitiveness.
Analysts' Outlook
- Analysts from Goldman Sachs and UBS raised 2025 industrial profit forecasts to between 5-7%, while cautioning that sustained recovery depends on global demand and domestic consumption trends.