TL;DR: Over $22 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, causing increased volatility, large liquidations, and sharp price movements in the crypto market.
What Happened
- Over $22 billion in crypto options expire today (Sept 26, 2025) at 08:00 UTC, mainly on Deribit.
- This includes around $16–17 billion in Bitcoin options and $5-6 billion in Ethereum options.
- It's one of the largest quarterly expiries of 2025, contributing to major volatility.
Market Impact
- Bitcoin dropped to $108,000, rebounded to $109,000; Ethereum fell below $3,900.
- Over $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, mostly long positions.
- Total crypto market cap fell by $170 billion this week.
- The Fear and Greed Index is at 28, signaling high market fear.
Options Data & Price Levels
- Bitcoin’s max pain point is $110,000; put-to-call ratio: 0.71 (bullish tilt).
- Ethereum’s max pain point is $3,700–$3,800; put-to-call ratio: 0.8.
- Most open interest is in call options, but puts are trading at a premium, indicating caution.
Institutional and Macro Factors
- Large outflows seen from BTC and ETH ETFs (~$250M this week).
- Expiry coincides with U.S. inflation data and Fed policy signals, adding macro pressure.
- The high notional value reflects growing institutional involvement in crypto derivatives.
Outlook After Expiry
- Market makers expected to roll over positions, leading to continued volatility.
- Analysts forecast potential BTC dip to $107,000, or breakout above $112,000 if support holds.
- Direction will depend on post-expiry liquidity and whale activity.